FLATTEN THE CURVE
There is no trend so that it will increase forever. trends begin to decrease after reaching the peak level within a certain period of time. We looked at the number of deaths in countries and when they reached the peak level and examined the fitting curve
Since the countries testing policies and therefore the number of cases are constantly changing, it is more accurate to look at the number of deaths. For countries, we accepted tipping point 10 deaths daily. It is very difficult to control the outbreak after 10 daily deaths levels. and many countries have similar patterns. After exceeding 10 daily death thresholds, they reach the peak level within 1 month.
We will examine how long the countries reached their peak.
First of all, let’s look at China, it passed the 10 death thresholds for the first time on January 25 and reaches the peak level after about a month as seen in the graphic. And it starts to decrease. As we will see in China and in many countries, the number of dead is low on weekends and Mondays. This is probably due to the inability to fully input data during holidays.
Italy, on the other hand, passes 10 death thresholds on 1 March and reaches the peak level on 27 March. This period of about 4 weeks is almost the same as China. Since the virus spreads very quickly in Italy, it must have reached its peak level in a shorter time.
The graphic of Spain is similar to Italy. It reached its peak in almost 4 weeks. It exceeds 10 death thresholds on 9 March and reaches the peak level on 3 April. The graphics of these countries, which are close in terms of median age and population, are quite similar.
America and England reach their peak level?
Britain passes 10 daily death thresholds on March 14, almost 1 month. On 10 April, he could have reached the peak with 980 deaths. We can understand that countries have reached the peak level by decreasing the increase. But Britain’s initial relaxed policy can lead to a second and bigger peak.
America passed 10 dead thresholds daily on 15 March. As we can see from the decrease in the increase, America has either exceeded its peak level or is very close. The biggest reason for so many deaths in America is the city of new york, which has a very high population density.
So is it enough to reach the peak level? Although it is promising, the quarantine needs to continue for a while. Coronaviruses are enveloped viruses. Enveloped viruses cannot be very effective in the summer. The Sars epidemic started in November and ended in August. It seems that the quarantine will continue until the weather gets warmer.
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