Ncov19 is a coronavirus. the seasonal flu is caused by influenza viruses. it causes 290000 to 650000 deaths per year. Most deaths are over 65 years old. Children under the age of 59 months are the risk group for seasonal flu, whereas coronavirus does not show such a risk.
Seasonal flu mortality is 0.2-0.1% for all ages. The mortality of ncov19 is 2.3%. ncov19 is 12 to 24 times more lethal than seasonal flu.
In the United States, 40 thousand people died annually from the seasonal flu, while 67 thousand people have died from covid19 so far. For seasonal flu, these numbers are 13 thousand for the United Kingdom, while the number of deaths from covid19 is 28 thousand.
One of the biggest differences between seasonal flu and covid19 is consciousness. The contagious value of the flu is 1.4 while covid19 is 3. After 10 passes, 1 person in the flu is responsible for the transmission of 14 people, while in covid19 this number is 59 thousand. This difference is the greatest strength and dangerous aspect of sarcov2.
how many people will die?
Tom Frieden estimates that if 50% of American people become infected, 1.6 million Americans would die.
In some of the previous pandemics, the number of dead is as follows
|Name||Time period||Type / Pre-human host||Death toll|
|Antonine Plague||165-180||Believed to be either smallpox or measles||5M|
|Japanese smallpox epidemic||735-737||Variola major virus||1M|
|Plague of Justinian||541-542||Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas||30-50M|
|Black Death||1347-1351||Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas||200M|
|New World Smallpox Outbreak||1520 – onwards||Variola major virus||56M|
|Great Plague of London||1665||Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas||100,000|
|Italian plague||1629-1631||Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas||1M|
|Cholera Pandemics 1-6||1817-1923||V. cholera bacteria||1M+|
|Third Plague||1885||Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas||12M (China and India)|
|Yellow Fever||The late 1800s||Virus / Mosquitoes||100,000-150,000 (U.S.)|
|Russian Flu||1889-1890||Believed to be H2N2 (avian origin)||1M|
|Spanish Flu||1918-1919||H1N1 virus / Pigs||40-50M|
|Asian Flu||1957-1958||H2N2 virus||1.1M|
|Hong Kong Flu||1968-1970||H3N2 virus||1M|
|HIV/AIDS||1981-present||Virus / Chimpanzees||25-35M|
|Swine Flu||2009-2010||H1N1 virus / Pigs||200,000|
|SARS||2002-2003||Coronavirus / Bats, Civets||770|
|Ebola||2014-2016||Ebolavirus / Wild animals||11,000|
|MERS||2015-Present||Coronavirus / Bats, camels||850|
|COVID-19||2019-Present||Coronavirus – Unknown (possibly pangolins)||11,400 (as of Mar 20, 2020)|